FOX Bet’s free $50,000 Thanksgiving contest: How confident are you in these QBs?

On Thursday, FOX Bet is offering a free chance to win $50,000 in their Super 6 NFL contest for the Cowboys-Washington Thanksgiving Day showdown. Bettors must correctly answer six questions for a chance to win the jackpot, predicting the winner, margin of victory and a number of other outcomes.

A number of the questions are a bit of a crapshoot: the second asks players to pick how the first TD of the second half will be scored, despite having no idea who will win the toss and who will have the ball to begin the half. However, the fourth question asks for the combined point total between the two teams, and there is some information available we can work with.

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The choices are as follows:

a) 40 or less

b) 41-45

c) 46-50

d) 51-55

e) 56-60

f) 61+

FOX Bet has the total at 46, which is a good starting point (it was bet down from 47.5 earlier in the week). Both Dallas and Washington have had recent quarterback changes, so it may be useless to analyze their season-long scoring averages. Instead, we can check on how each team did with their current signal caller.

Cowboys QB Andy Dalton has had two wildly different outcomes in the two games he started and finished: against Arizona, his offense limped to 10 points, but against Minnesota this past Sunday, it scored 31 and won the game. While the offense will likely trend in a positive direction with Dalton getting more comfortable under center, Washington is a better defense than both aforementioned opponents, sixth in DVOA compared to just outside the top 10 for the Vikings and Cardinals. So the average (20.5) seems about right.

In the three games where Alex Smith played at least 80 percent of the snaps (two starts and one in relief for Kyle Allen), Washington scored 20 points twice and 27 in the third. All three games were against teams in the bottom 10 in DVOA, but Dallas is barely better, 11th worst in the league (though they have improved recently). Therefore, 22.3 points, the average in Alex Smith’s games, also seems about right.

That admittedly rudimentary math gives a total around 43, three points under Vegas’ total. Vegas surely knows better than we do, but the total has been bet down by a point and a half this week, meaning a slight lean to the under may make sense. Plus, both teams are on a short week. All things considered, B) 41-45 may be the best pick.

Here is the full content:

1. What will be the last scoring play of the 1st half?

a) Cowboys TD
b) Cowboys FG
c) Washington TD
d) Washington FG
e) Any other score/no score

2. How will the first TD of the 3rd quarter be scored?

a) Cowboys rushing
b) Cowboys passing
c) Washington rushing
d) Washington passing
e) Any other TD
f) No TD

3. How many different players will score a TD in the game?

a) 1-2
b) 3
c) 4
d) 5
e) 6+
f) No player scores a TD

4. How many total points will be scored in the game?

a) 40 or less
b) 41-45
c) 46-50
d) 51-55
e) 56-60
f) 61+

5. Who will have the most yards and how many yards will they have?

Cowboys lead with:

a) 0 to 340 yards
b) 341-360 yards
c) 361-380 yards
d) 381-400 yards
e) 401-420 yards
f) 421+ yards

Washington leads with:

a) 0 to 340 yards
b) 341-360 yards
c) 361-380 yards
d) 381-400 yards
e) 401-420 yards
f) 421+ yards

6. Who will win the contest and by how many?

Cardinals by:

a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+

Seahawks by:

a) 1 to 2
b) 3 to 4
c) 5 to 6
d) 7 to 9
e) 10 to 14
f) 15+

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